#85: Pascal's Wager and a Deathbed Conversion?

Hello Rick,

You may have seen recent news about Scott Adams, the American cartoonist, author, and conservative commentator best known as the creator of the Dilbert comic strip. Adams died of cancer last week.

According to multiple media reports, Adams described himself as “not a believer” for most of his life. He acknowledged that Christian friends had shared their faith with him, but he remained skeptical. Just weeks before his death, however, he announced that he would convert to Christianity and accept Jesus Christ as his Lord and Savior. Adams explained that his decision was a rational one, based largely on Pascal’s Wager.

What Is Pascal’s Wager?

Pascal’s Wager is a philosophical argument for the rationality of belief in God, proposed by the 17th-century French philosopher, scientist, and mathematician Blaise Pascal (1623-1662). Pascal was a remarkable intellect and a child prodigy. During the first 31 years of his life, he made major contributions to physics and probability theory. He also designed the first mechanical calculator among many other inventions.

At age 31, however, Pascal experienced a dramatic spiritual transformation.

On the night of November 23, 1654, Pascal underwent an intense spiritual experience that lasted several hours. He later recorded the event on a parchment he titled Memorial, noting the exact date and time. He sewed the document into the lining of his jacket, where it was discovered eight years after his death. [1]

Following his conversion, Pascal radically reordered his life. He sold most of his possessions, gave the proceeds to the poor, and spent his remaining years in a Catholic abbey. There he wrote Pensées, a collection of notes that is one of the most influential defenses of the Christian faith. Given his intellectual rigor and spiritual awakening, it is unsurprising that Pascal concluded that both the mind and the heart are necessary to arrive at Christian truth. [2]

The Logic of the Wager

Pascal’s Wager is often illustrated with a simple table showing possible choices and outcomes. The wager assumes two competing worldviews: Christian theism and naturalism (or atheism).

Importantly, Pascal’s Wager is not an argument for the existence of God. Rather, it is a practical calculation that claims belief in God is the rational choice.

The reasoning is straightforward. A person may choose to believe in God or not. If one believes and Christianity is true, the result is eternal salvation—an infinite gain. If Christianity is false, the loss is finite: wasted time spent in worship, moral restraint, or religious commitment.

If, however, one does not believe and Christianity is true, the result is eternal separation from God—an infinite loss. If Christianity is false, the gain is limited to finite worldly freedoms. From this perspective, Pascal concludes that belief is the more rational decision.

The critical elements of the wager are: YOUR CHOICE and Believe or Don’t Believe.

Can One Simply Choose to Believe?

Can belief really be reduced to a rational decision? Setting aside the theological debate between Arminianism and Calvinism, orthodox Christians agree on one central truth: belief requires the work of the Holy Spirit. Without regeneration, true faith does not occur. In that sense, belief is not something we can manufacture by pure intellect or willpower.

What Pascal is really addressing is not belief in the narrow sense, but faith. If we substitute “faith” for “belief” in the wager, the issue becomes clearer. The choice is not merely intellectual assent, but whether one possesses faith or does not possess faith.

Scripture defines faith in Hebrews 11:1 as “the assurance of things hoped for, the conviction of things not seen.” Conviction implies certainty. One cannot simply will oneself to faith in God without first being convinced of His existence and the truth of the Christian worldview. Pascal himself surely understood this, given his personal encounter with God and the apparent regenerative work of the Holy Spirit in his own life.

So why propose the wager at all?

The Purpose of the Wager

Pascal’s Wager is meant to provoke reflection, not conversion. It encourages unbelievers to consider the consequences of nonbelief. Though admittedly simplistic, the wager highlights what is at stake if Christianity is true. It appeals to reason, not emotion, and challenges the assumption that disbelief is the more “rational” position.

If someone accepts the logic of the wager, the reasonable next step is investigation. One should examine the evidence for God’s existence, consider the coherence of the Christian worldview, confront the reality of sin, and seriously reflect on the claims of the gospel.

Pascal lived in a culture much like ours—one that increasingly prized rationalism and dismissed faith as irrational. His wager turns that assumption on its head by arguing that disbelief carries the greatest risk of all.

In this way, Pascal’s Wager functions as an invitation to non-believers to take Christianity seriously and to examine the plausibility of the biblical worldview.

A Modern Example

As death approached, Scott Adams began to consider Christianity more seriously. He admitted that Pascal’s Wager played a role in his decision to accept Jesus Christ. One can hope that, along with the wager, he engaged in conversations about sin, grace, mercy, and the saving work of our Lord with his Christian friends—and that through these discussions he came to both conviction and assurance regarding his eternal future.

For Christians today, Pascal’s Wager remains a useful tool when engaging unbelievers. While it does not create faith, it can cause people to pause, reflect, and reconsider the Christian worldview.

Sometimes, that pause is enough to open the door to deeper truth.

Heavenly Father,
Thank You for Your patience, mercy, and grace toward all who seek truth. Use our words, our witness, and even simple appeals to reason to draw hearts toward You. Grant clarity to those who doubt, humility to those who question, and faith to those You are calling to Yourself. May we always be ready to give a reason for the hope we have, with gentleness and respect.  Amen

In Christ, Doug

AoM Co-Founder, Director of AoM-Military Outreach & Secretary, Board of Directors; US Army Major General (Retired)

     “Always be prepared to make a defense to anyone who asks you for a reason for the hope that is in you; yet do it with gentleness and respect . . .” 1 Peter 3:15